Ukraine & Russia Conflict… 334 days later

Russia Ukraine 334 Days later – Half Life Crisis www.halflifecrisis.com

On February 22, 2022 the Russian military crossed the border into Ukraine.  This war rages on, both Ukrainian and Russians lives are tragically destroyed.

 

The human toll remains.

This is the continuation to the article I published on December 23, 2022. If you haven’t read it, I highly recommend you to check it out for context as this article will build upon it. The name of the article is Ukraine & Russia Conflict… 302 days later. Thus far it has been the most commented article in my blog www.halflifecrisis.com. And although I don’t write content expecting tribute, I am grateful that my words have resonated. I’m grateful to all my readers, thank you all so much! And this time we start with the question: What have we learned in these 32 days since my last article? Short answer, a lot! Long answer, the content of this article.

Before I write any further, I want to emphasize that everything I am about to speak in this article is part of the public domain and historical records. These bits of information have been broadcasted in world news and, it also has first accounts of independent media personalities. All these can be independently verified, as I mentioned are posted in the public domain. My intent is to bring some coherence into to the situation we are going to discuss in this article, and why should we care – even if we’re not directly living in Ukraine or Russia. The next time I do an update to this topic, hopefully will be because the conflict between these two countries got resolved peacefully. But sadly, I must admit that I am not holding my breath on that possibility.

 

Ukraine-Russia conflict 302-days-later

A protracted conflict

For anybody who would ascertain that this conflict started just in February 24, 2022 – then they have unfortunately missed a lot of history that pertains to both countries back to the Czars of Russia, and well before the establishment and dissolution of the Soviet Union. We touched a bit about that on the previous article, but it is worth repeating that Ukraine and “European” Russia have a lot of history together, particularly when it comes to ethnicity and cultural ties. Also, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until the 90’s when it became an independent state. And Ukraine was not the only former “Soviet territory” that was happy to distance themselves from what was known as the “Iron Curtain.”

Although a lot of older generation Russians have – for whatever personal reason – fond memories about the Soviet Union; this was not a shared sentiment by all back in Soviet times, nor is it now. The Soviet rule was authoritarian in nature, even if it “gave people power of equality” – this was not necessarily a good thing. Because this equality turned into very starks levels of austerity, and people were just expected to be happy with whatever small division of the collective “wealth” (and using that word very generously) was available to go around.

Well, it turns out there was not “enough” wealth to go around. Any decision about how the country’s revenue and income was utilized rested in the hands of a very small group of people at the very top. Everybody else was supposed to be obedient, and “report” any dissenting views. Dissenting views were not welcome. Especially during the first years of the Soviet Union until around the 60’s the “Gulags” were instituted in order to punish people who were not up to par on their loyalty, or if they proved themselves problematic to the status quo.

Although the actual Gulags (which were these labor-to-death camps all over Russia – especially in Siberia) were discontinued; it was not because Soviets wanted to be nicer to the dissenting views. They just proven unprofitable by the 60’s, and more of burden than an asset. Which you can only imagine how terrible the conditions and corruption had to be to bring something that was essentially manpower by indented servitude labor – the closest thing to slavery… to the point of being an economic downfall. I am passionately against slavery and indented servitude; therefore, I am happy that particular dark chapter in human history came to an end.

But you still have to realize how incompetent the Soviet party had to be to even essentially bankrupt labor camps that took ownership of people’s free labor. Just imagine if instead of this being a death camp was a non-profit charity where people help on projects by donating their time, and still fail to be sustainable. Obviously, the latter was nothing like the Gulags, but in Soviet times – that’s essentially how it was portrayed. People helping the motherland – giving them a purpose. But in reality, was a cruel punishment.

People all over the Soviet Union had an idea of the consequences of disobedience, even if they never meet somebody in the Gulags themselves. Then again, most people who went there did not really had a chance to escape as they were normally in very inhospitable remote areas. And the survivor accounts are horrific to say the least.

But from these groups of people who conglomerated in these camps, hierarchies of organized crime and other people of “specific value” – also started to appear inside the Gulags. You have to realize that when people were sent there as punishment, they were from all “walks of life” in the Soviet bloc. Therefore, a hardened criminal could very well be side by side with a political prisoner who happened to say something that angered the party. And during Soviet times, there was not much that would not be considered provocative to the party. In some instances, entire families were sent to these forced work prison sentences. It was not uncommon to see people die of starvation and being robbed of their humanity.

Keep this in mind as we continue to understand what the mind of each side of this Ukraine-Russia conflict is. From either side of this equation there will be visceral responses on the population on each country. And keep in mind that Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until the start of the 90’s.  In fact, you’ll find interesting that the date was Saturday, August 24, 1991. I find it to be a bizarre coincidence that Russia crossed the Ukrainian border February 24, 2002. That’s 30 years and 6 months. Or for you eagle-eye mathematicians 11,142 days! Keep this in mind as we understand the geopolitical situation narrative fast forwarding to this time.

First let’s realize that if there is a person who is 30+ years of age they were technically alive during the Soviet era. However, it will take more or less at least a solid seven to ten years of age to get a full level of indoctrination as a child. So, we have to understand what people in their 40’s might be somewhere in the fence about wanting to make a change. Have you ever been a teenager? Or know a teenager? Then you know what I’m talking about. Fast forward then to an older type of demographic, mid-40’s or 50’s or older and now there is going to be a lot more “potential affection” for the Soviet style of governing. And even though I definitely disagree with the Soviet style, I can understand why some people would miss it. Because that was considered “normal” in their lives. The fast changing pace in the world is not welcome to a segment of older folks. That does not mean they are not smart, that means they were accustomed to a different reality.

But the fact is that everything in life changes, we all evolve. We have been evolving as a species from the beginning of time. And this evolution is what has helped us adapt and overcome our environment. And part of this evolution is how we adapt to the geo-socio-economic world. For example, we all likely have a smart phone. Even if you liked your old flip phone, it will likely make it very hard to keep up with the pace of the world on such an old device. Do you remember what it was like sending a text on a flip phone? If you wanted to type the world “LOCK” you would have to press 555 666 222 55… who’s going to do that in good conscience when you can now have a pretty smart keyboard or even dictate to your phone something and it will do it for you? This is what I mean by how evolution affects in so many different ways. It is how we adapt to our environment.

However, there are still people who will think that sending a little message that way is just fine. So let’s say they want to say. “Hello son come over for dinner at 7pm and bring dessert” in a flip phone. You ready? Well… there we go… “44 33 555 555 666 7777 666 66 222 666 6 33 666 888 33 77 333 666 777 3 444 66 66 33 777 2 8 77777 7 6 2 66 3 22 777 444 6 4 3 33 7777 33 777 8.” Wasn’t that super unpleasant? If you’re from my age time frame, when we grew with flip phones, then you remember doing that song and dance to send a simple text. Well, the reason why I put this example is because people tend to cling to the past due to nostalgia or whatever is it that they liked back then – and unfortunately would be willing to hold everybody back along with them. Well, time will continue moving forward regardless.

I asked you to keep in mind the fact that it has been over 30 years since Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union. Well, culturally there will be ties that will keep the clutches of the Soviet mentality in the minds of the older generations. Again, I am not faulting them for that, because that was the whole world they knew. This was their reality, and that was indoctrinated from the moment they were born. That that was “the way it was” and further at the time of indoctrination “that’s the best it will ever be for them, and shut up, and enjoy, and be grateful for what they got.” The world does not work like that anymore. And no, it is not a “Western Capitalist decadence” – it is human nature, we are supposed to improve as a person so we can improve collectively and make the next generation stronger and better than we ever were. Evolution. We naturally crave this.

However, and most unfortunately on the Soviet era the wasted time or the suffering of people was largely irrelevant to many in leadership positions. Proletarians had to hurry up and wait. Hurry up and get to a list, and then wait until hopefully your turn comes up to receive whatever is that the state would provide. This being housing, food, transportation, etc. They would have salaries but the buying power was meager. However, as some things seemed subsidized then it might have felt to some (erroneously) as they had better buying power. They did not. Everybody in average was “equal” in the sense they were all oppressed. And it was of course illegal to figure out what was out there in the world, or for outsides to figure out what was actually going on inside Soviet territory in the areas not approved by the party. Visitor tours were very controlled, and somebody was following foreigners at all times. Why you think is that?

The reason why there is a protracted conflict with Ukraine is because this situation goes far beyond bombs, ordinance, and opposing forces. It goes also because of the balance of an ideology that was founded in December 30, 1922 and dissolved in December 26, 1991. That’s 68 years, 11 months, 3 weeks and 5 days. Of altogether 25,198 years the Soviet Union existed. And how it ended? Did they have a war with the West or NATO? They did not, it got destroyed on its own, it was not sustainable. However, the biases and the indoctrination has vestigial doctrines with the older generations.

Some older folks who were fond of Soviet times would blame Perestroika, which as a political movement within the Soviet party led by Mikhail Gorbachev – who was the last leader of the Soviet Union. Perestroika was actually supposed to be a mechanism to incentivize the failing Soviet economy.  This was of course not welcome by a significant segment of the population because that required additional levels of transparency. And among other things that’s what started showing the flaws of the system. I can do a later article in Perestroika alone, because there is plenty to talk about. But meanwhile, if you would be analyzing the situation pragmatically, the Soviet system had already collapsed years ago. This was just a way out towards the inevitable demise of the Soviet Union. To recap, a small group of people held all the power and narrative, and then obedience was required from all citizens. And if you were not obedient, you and everything you ever loved got punished or eliminated. People learned not to speak out of turn, and never EVER say anything that might feel provocative. Even if it was a valid question. Especially, in fact if it was a valid question.

Therefore, within a very short time after the Soviet Union collapsed, many nations declared their independence. Much like a relationship breakup, some remained “amicable” – others preferred not to hang out again after the break-up. Of course, following that analogy – there will be growing pains as the different parties go their separated ways. Some will do great, some not so much. It was harder for the nations that share a border with Russia, of course Ukraine is one of those because like it or not, it is a de-facto frontier between Russia and NATO.

However, despite this a looming distrust would reside in the hears and minds of everyone involved. This is a cultural and human factor – and that on itself makes it exponentially complex. Why? Because every person is unique and even those considered more “simple minded” will have a wide range of emotions based on their understanding of their reality. And realize that their reality can very well be a manufactured product of propaganda.

Because the flaws that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country fell in disarray after the iron curtain fell. This opened the door to a bunch of opportunistic enterprises in and out of Russia. For example, have you heard the story that a drug lord was buying a Soviet submarine? Yes, it’s true, there are even entire movie-documentaries about it. Look it up. But for now, I just wanted to use it to illustrate how rough things got in Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed. Which once again brings up the question. Why did it collapse? Because it was not properly administrated and people were not able to be “people” – they were just obedient beings. And that is horrible, because even though in their lives it might seem like they had some fulfilling livelihood, the fact is that many of them were not afforded the opportunity to see what was the world like outside the Soviet bloc.

 

Ideological battle and war.

As you can see, there is a lot more to think about before we understand the horrors of this war. Ukrainians are not only fighting for their lives, but for their heritage… if that makes sense. Ukraine, although a very old country – since the dissolution of the Soviet Union is still a fairly “young country.”  Therefore it would not be surprising they have room for improvement and growing pains and all other things that come with being a newer kid in the block. And of course, they also have a lot of people who grew in the Soviet era who thought it was just peachy back then. But again, not everybody got a chance to experience the world in a way that was beneficial.

For example, back in the Soviet days if people wanted to travel – this was a very controlled affair. Less of a problematic errand if they moved inside the Soviet territory. And guess what? Everything in the Soviet Union seemed very much the same as everywhere else… it was designed to be that way. However, if you were to travel abroad to the west – very different story. And one of those restrictions was that travelers could not take more than a very small amount of money with them. Why you think is that?

Well, it would not take a doctorate degree to realize that Soviet leaders did not want Soviet travelers to defect while they were abroad. And also, if you have to clutch to your pennies then you’re going to have “less of a good time” to enjoy the west.  Afterall, it would seem extremely expensive and likely very stressful to them. Even “decadent.” There were a lot of psychological games that were played back then. For instance, a traveler would had to check with Soviet appointed people – likely intelligence agents – to get them ready to the trip, and when they return chat again about everything they experienced. And of course, even this high-scrutiny privilege was limited to very few people. Most people alive today who grew in the Soviet Union, never left he country. Therefore all they know is whatever the official narrative tells them. And it would be very naïve to think that the official narrative was painting the outside world in an attractive light.

And this will beg the question, how are people in Ukraine and in Russia consuming information and news? Well, it is logical for Russia most of the news will be state run and broadcasted on TV. It is not unlikely how it used to be in Soviet times – except that it would have been mostly newspapers and radio. TV were expensive for a lot time in the Soviet era. With this, I am not saying that Russia is passing Soviet propaganda right now, what I am saying is that they likely realized that the way older people who were alive during Soviet times are more likely to receive their official news on their TV. Ukraine has a much wider availability of information. Will we see censoring of western information in Russia? I don’t know, I don’t live there. Is there censorship?

For better of for worse, a lot of older folks from the Soviet era do not want to see change. And this would make sense because change was very, very slow in Soviet times. Therefore, seeing the exponentially fast moving world of today would at the very least be uncomfortable, and likely overwhelming.

Let me give you an illustrative example for you to understand what I mean by this. Back in the day, if you wanted to buy a car in the Soviet Union you had to wait… and I mean wait a long, long, long, long time. First, you’ll get to be a certain age and could not be a “trouble maker.” Then, you had to be in a waiting list to get a car. And this could take several years, in average about nine years… Just imagine, you want to buy a new car and have to wait nine freaking years! Was there financing? F—k no! You had to save money for all those years, so you can go and pay the entity that would give you a voucher for the car, then take that to whomever was distributing the car. There were no car dealers in the Soviet Union… and then pick up your car. I’m not sure you had a say in the color, or if you got what you got… Which was by the way an ugly-underpowered piece of crap vehicle. Oh, and it would cost the same as the equivalent of a high luxury car in the west…

So, enjoy your “Lada.” Which as the most desirable car for an everyday Soviet person. By the way, if you ever seen those in your country… yes, they were fugly and drove like a bucket of bolts with a steering wheel. I know, I’ve driven a few – though I’ve never owned one.  Oh, and the export version was better than the domestic… because you know, showing off to the rest of the world the proud Soviet automotive engineering. So let me tell you a couple of stories about this.

I grew up in Ecuador in the 80’s and to the mid 90’s – and these highly desirable Soviet cars were utilized as the “cheaper taxis” and the most economic car a person could buy. I remember our friends laughing when a TV commercial for a Lada would come out. They would try to show it as glamorous with spot lights on a round platform with the announcer saying it had a FM radio, seat belts and reclining seats… wow! I’m not kidding. The quality of these cars was always very poor, they broke down a lot, they were underpowered as I mentioned, and the steering was so loose it would feel like you were steering a ship. Everything seemed like an afterthought if you compared to any other automobile available in the country. And let me tell you, Ecuador was by no means a place that was flooded with high end automobiles. But even for these standards, a Lada was not a sought-out vehicle.

Now imagine, if Ecuadorians would have to wait nine years just to buy this vehicle after saving most of their salary – and pay it all with no financing… and it would cost a lot more than the better choices. What would you think it would be the decision a hard-working Ecuadorian would take? But of course, Ladas were super cheap in Ecuador compared to other cars. That’s why they were mostly used as taxis. And yes, there were car dealerships in Ecuador when I was growing up. The first family car I recall when I was a kid was my mother’s Alfa Romeo. And yes, cars were (and are) very expensive in Ecuador, but not nine-years of austerity to buy it in one lump sum expensive. Also, imagine how much a car changes in nine years. And I am the kind of person who will keep a car for as long as it moves, but I can still see the difference in technology from my oldest to my newest vehicle.

And the overall point is that this very slow change and these cars were virtually not improved at all through the years. This created a sense of normality that time gets suspended indefinitely for most people trapped in that reality. If similar for decades everything seems to be the same, same furniture, same old design for the living quarters, etc. then what would be the feeling if you see SOMEBODY ELSE live in a way that is more modernized? Well, there is going to be some jealousy, even if it is disguised as something else. And the end result will be the same, hostility. And that is a bit of a retrograde way to be in the developing world, but there was this weird stigma or chip on the shoulder if somebody had something a bit nicer than you.

Let me give you an example. Growing up in Ecuador, if you showed up with new shoes and they were nice and shiny – your classmates would do this stupid ritual.  They could call it “La chicha…” and proceed to step on your new shoes so they would not look new anymore. I always thought it was absolutely stupid, and yes, I had somebody do that to me more than once. I never did that to anybody else, because to me it felt downright stupid and disrespectful. But in Ecuador, I even remember some old timers thinking that it was fine, because that would make sure I was humbling myself. I thought that weird tradition was f—g stupid then, and I have not changed my mind. I don’t know if people still do that, but I am very sure the feeling does exist. Why? Because it is human thing, not just an Ecuadorian thing. It stems from this innate sense of not feeling cheated. Even if this assertation is erroneous in nature. And yes, it can be erroneous, because sometimes we might feel jealous about somebody achieving something, but we don’t always stop to understand what took them to earn that achievement.

But in either case, we become products of our environment. And the more cooped up we are in an echo chamber, the less likely we are to really understand others outside our circle. That’s what keeps fueling this conflict. It’s the supporters of a narrative that was best kept in the Soviet era… even if the message is not Soviet itself. I know, it’s an abstract point of view.

Is Ukraine or Russia the ones who are correct in this conflict? I’ll let you decide that, but I’ll remind us all that it was not Ukraine who crossed the border with military might on February 24, 2022. The reasons why it crossed, according to Russia’s official narrative. Well, it has changed. First to liberate the ethnic Russian people in Donbas area in Ukraine, then it changed to fight Nazis, and then it moved to protect from NATO. So, which one is it then? And defending from what? ZERO NATO attacks have been made or attempted against the Russian homeland.

I said this in my previous article, and it is worth repeating. NATO and USA, which is part of NATO do not want to erase Russia from the map. NOBODY in fact wants that. Western people are happier doing whatever is that that they do instead of fighting in a foreign land. For instance, I am watching my daughter eat her snack while she’s watching her videos after she returned from school. She’s happy and I am happy enjoying these moments. Like me, there are millions of Americans and NATO country people who want to enjoy their life with their loved ones.

And also, most Russian people are really super nice. They are very smart and educated people. The new generation of Russians seems not to be onboard with this conflict or any conflict for that matter. And that would beg the question, why are some of the older folks more in-tune with the conflict than younger people? If it is not obvious, because the younger generation are savvier as far as getting information from different sources. Even if there is control over the airwaves. Younger people don’t just listen to dissenting sources, but they analyze the differences in narrative and use logic and metrics to ensure they are not being gaslighted.

Are they being gaslighted in the official press? That’s for you to decide. But don’t you find it strange that as soon as the first mobilization was announced a lot of them fled the country? Thousands left everything behind, and paid high amounts of money to find a way out – either by plane or road. And now it is being reported that they word on the street is that these young men who fled are considered traitors… because they are not defending their homeland.

But newsflash, Russia’s homeland is not being attacked by anybody. Russia did make a referendum which has not been recognized by the international community to make Ukraine Donbas area part of Russia – but for all intents and purposes, that’s still Ukraine. Also, many older Russians are calling Ukrainians with very derogative epithets. And now they want them back as Russians? First saying that they are another bad country, then saying that they were never not Russia… which one is it then? It is a weird thing for them to say this after 30 years of Ukraine being exactly that… another country. But the official narrative being reported around the world is that Russia is trying express that Ukraine is not actually a country. And even if that would make sense, that would mean they are in a civil war… attacking their own people.

Of course, that’s not the case. Ukraine is a sovereign independent country, and so it’s Russia. The majority of the world does not agree with the Russian regime about this so called “Special Military Operation” – which is actually a war. And Russia is not wining, and unfortunately to them it is a war they cannot win and it is taking Ukraine along with this conflict. Why I say it cannot be won? Because it is not sustainable for them. Russia is already in the hook for a costly war that will take generations to recover. The rest of the world is watching in horror, but we know that if we intervene directly then the Russian regime would consider this a provocation and escalation. What the international community is doing is simply making sure the conflict does not expand. But that does not mean that they are not hoping this whole thing comes to a peaceful end sooner than later.

And let’s be clear, the Russian regime is not Russian people. Sure that a lot of them might agree with the regime, but there are a lot who do not. Of course, that protesting in Russia is not usually welcomed by the authorities. And what do you think would be their recourse? It’s hard, and it is not an enviable position for the rest of Russia.

There is this Russian youtuber, you can find him if you search around. But I won’t say his name here because this could create a potentially polarizing situation. But what he does is conducting some street interviews to people around Russia and asks them about what they think about the Special Military Operation, and about the Mobilization, and what do they think about other countries, etc. And he goes to big cities and around rural areas. And I’ve enjoyed watching it because it gives you an idea to see what’s in the minds of everyday Russian people. And it is interesting to see the differences between some of the younger people in Moscow or other big cities and the people in rural areas. Also, you get to see the difference between people who preferred the Soviet Union and people who are happy it dissolved.

In either case I love the fact this exists. And I have to commend him for doing this. Because it gives us an inside look to what otherwise could become, he said – she said from a disconnected source. One of the most interesting things are the reactions when it comes to questions that could be “provocative” – you can see, especially young people being very, very cautious on how they respond.

Of course that old and young people might have similar opinions either way, but it is sobering to see the human reaction to all. A lot of the people mention they are neutral and apolitical, which is a fair point. However, I do have to agree with this youtuber that not understanding politics is irrelevant to the fact that politics will affect them either way. And in this case, they might be ok as some of their fellow Russians are sent to the front lines, but nothing is saying they would not be next. Also, many of the interviewed had friends sent to the front lines, and haven’t heard from them since.

Some young Russians are very vocal about their disagreement with the conflict, and they want what we all want – peace.  Some even said that Putin is not Russia, and some go on to say they feel powerless to do anything. Why? Because either them or somebody they know have been imprisoned for speaking out something that would be consider controversial.  In either case, it is the Russian people who will decide if the military operation against Ukraine stops or not. How they will do that? We’ll that’s up to them. Frustratingly, the international community is only trying to ease the Ukrainian people suffering until Russia comes out with a course of action that agreeable to Ukraine.

Back in Soviet times, when Henry Kissinger was working for the U.S. government, he had an interesting quote. Before you read that, I should caveat that I don’t agree with all what Kissinger did during his time in office. But that’s a different rant. However, even in my dissent with him in so many things, I do find a lot of interesting thoughts with this quote. “The constant repetition of slogans and literature was directed at the psychological weak spots of the non-Soviet world. The west feels ambivalent [hesitant] about the use of force in international relations. A campaign against the horrors of nuclear war could only strengthen those inhibitions… The peace movement thus enabled the Soviets to enlist the hopes and fears of many eminent men, appalled by the prospect of nuclear warfare. Who would have nothing to do with overt Communist efforts. The task of physiological warfare is to hamstring the opponent through his own preconceptions.”  What do you think when you read this quote? Read it carefully, there is plenty to unpack.

First off, Kissinger was indeed a war-happy person.  But being objective what jumps to me is the psychological warfare of exploiting biases and force a situation when even dissenting options get traction if an overarching fear seems plausible. And of course, it will get a lot more stressed if this plausibility turns eminent.

So, let’s close this article by answering the question based on this context. The international community is not happy with the Russian regime, but they are not against the Russian people. They are not considered one and the same by the international community, nor it seems that it considered the same by actual Russians. Sure that opinions are divided, and according to interviews and reporting the official narrative is that Russia is being attacked. That’s just not true, there have been zero attacks to the Russian homeland by the international community.  I’ll end up in the same manner as last article, next month, February 24, 2023 will be a year since the conflict started. How will the world look at that time? Hopefully by then peace will be achieved. HLC

 

Ukraine & Russia conflict… 302 days later – HALF Life Crisis