Ukraine & Russia Conflict… 2 years later

Russia Ukraine Two Years Later – Half Life Crisis www.halflifecrisis.comIt has been two years since Russia’s military forces crossed the Ukrainian border, and this senseless war rages on with no end.  What has the world learned?

 

A protracted war with no end in sight.

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is one of the most significant geopolitical events in our lifetimes.  While millions around the world go about their lives without a second thought, Ukrainians have been under threat of death and violence every single day for the last two years.  There is only one person on this planet who can immediately stop this conflict, and that person is Russian President Putin.  Though he has made it clear that he is not interested in ending this war anytime soon.

If you are new to this series, I’ve written several articles about it on this site.  I recommend you to read the previous articles before continuing with this one.  Of course, you’re also welcome to read this article first before working your way back in time.  The words on those have remained as true back then as they remain true today.

Ukraine & Russia Conflict… over 485 days later

Ukraine & Russia Conflict… a year later

Ukraine & Russia Conflict… 334 days later

Ukraine & Russia conflict… 302 days later

But more importantly, the premise for this war has not only continued to morph, but in some people’s weird mental gymnastics’ twists, it has also doubled down on some of the less credible claims.  Anybody who digs just below the surface to find context will be able to see what the international courts have agreed.  This conflict is a crime against humanity, and like it or not, the entire world is involved because of it.

Setting the record straight.

I’ve said it before, it is worth repeating.  On February, 24, 2022 it was not the Ukraine military who crossed the border to their neighboring country.  Instead, initially the official narrative from Russia regarding this so called “special military operation” was meant to “liberate” Ukrainians who happen to be ethnically and ideologically aligned with Russia.  After two years of war, it is safe to ascertain that Ukrainians do not agree with the official Russian rhetoric in regards to this conflict.

Recently, ex-Fox News host, Tucker Carlson travelled to Moscow to “interview” the incumbent Russian President.  I put “interview” in quotations, because despite Tucker calling himself a journalist, his interaction with Putin was less than stellar, and likely highly controlled by the Kremlin.  Russia is historically known for framing information on very specific ways.  And it is also well known that dissent with the official narrative has been met with severe punitive measures.

Was Carlson aware or cognizant that saying something provocative towards Putin could put himself under duress?  I would ascertain that given the tenor of their in-camera meeting, Putin was in full control of that narrative, and even the small push back Carlson hinted at, it was met by Putin with overwhelming mockery and downright humiliation against Carlson.  Many of Carlson’s fans think he was brilliant during this interview with Putin, but most people in the rest of the planet disagree with them.  Putin was a former KGB agent, who is very savvy in human intelligence and it would be very naïve to think he was not going to be able to take full control of the interview.

And Putin did take control of the interview from the very start, after mocking Carlson in the first few minutes, he went on to speak for more than a half hour about his understanding of Russian history.  Many historians do not agree with Putin’s historical recount.  However, Carlson obviously did not have enough historical acumen to ask relevant follow up questions, even though I would not be surprised that Putin would have not tolerated even a single poignant follow up question.  How do I know?  Because even soft-ball questions were met with mockery and humiliation.

Why am I talking about this interview?  Because it is very relevant to the geopolitical stability of the country.  It would be very naïve to think that Putin and the incumbent Russian government did not understand the value to have Tucker Carlson as the megaphone to Putin’s voice to a western audience.  Putin has been very cognizant and vocal about saying how divided we are here on the west (no surprise there), yet he has not been able to speak directly to the American people.  Particularly those Americans who are very receptive to what he had to say.

And if you have heard and read the comments post-interview, a lot of Americans who happen to like Tucker found a lot of affinity and devotion for Putin.  In other words, Putin’s tactics worked as a charm.  And that is an important topic, because like it or not, Carlson’s audience have a proclivity for repeating Russian talking points verbatim, even if they haven’t realized it.  And of course, these talking points are cleverly disguised as “American Patriot” points, but they are in fact very divisive in nature.  Much like any swindle, it will look very reasonable superficially, but if you scrutinize it a bit, the math will start showing a lot of dead ends.

Yet propaganda, and narratives that have a particular agenda to move rhetoric into action are designed to be very palatable.  In fact, they will look enticing, and even fire up the spirit of a person to “fight” against whatever perceived enemy is pinned in front of them.  But again, it is not just about what is being said, but HOW it is said.  There are a lot of subtleties in the way a narrative is presented.  It is subjective, but there is a reason why some people can elicit higher levels of human emotion.  It is a trick as old as time itself.  Most swindlers will seem legitimate to the untrained eye, that is why they can get away with it.

And if a person falls for that, well – don’t’ feel too bad, because these traps are designed in a way that it is very easy to fall for them.  The difference is that they are a lot more complex than most people will realize.  Like an illusionist will divert your attention, similarly, a propagandist will move your perception in a manner that it will make the victim perceive the actual answer as counterintuitive.  Again, it is designed to be that way, and it is a sinister art form.  In my book AUTHORITARIANISM & PROPAGANDA The Puppet Master Tools, I dedicate an entire chapter to talk about that sinister artform.

AUTHORITARIANISM & PROPAGANDA The Puppet Master Tools

So, it was not surprising that Carlson’s audience found Putin’s words enticing.  Many of Carlson’s fans even praised Putin for reciting history off-the-cuff.  Which is extremely naïve to think Putin did not have that already planned out, because he knows that it would impress some people to whom he was really talking – Carlson’s audience.  And they sure assimilated Putin’s message exactly as he intended it.  There was no shortage of disparaging comments against Ukraine, the United States, the American people, NATO, and other U.S. & world interests.  And of course, there was huge praise about Putin and Carlson, even though Carlson was emasculated a bunch of times during the interview.

Putin spoke unchallenged for more than two hours, and Carlson barely had a word in, and any time he said something that could seem provocative, Putin humiliated him.  I repeat this, because this seems to be the part that Carlson’s fans are missing.  And yes, all this part ties to the conflict with Ukraine.

 

Two years into a war that started several years earlier.

It is heartbreaking that a lot of people in a peaceful part of the world do not really stop to think about the pain and suffering that has been raging in Ukraine.  If you live comfortably today in your home, look around you… Now just imagine everything that is in your home is destroyed, the walls have fallen, there is no clean water, and even if you have few moments of electricity, you don’t know when the next bombing raid will hit your town, and kill your loved ones.

Your job, gone!  Your loved ones, killed!  Your memories and everything you ever loved, destroyed!  Maybe you were lucky enough to survive and leave, leaving your home and everything you worked your whole life behind.  You only have the clothes on your back, and everything you ever collected, cherished, enjoyed, saved, loved, remembered – has been destroyed!  If you had a job, you cannot longer do that because your place of work does not exist anymore, and you don’t know how much worse each day will be, and often each new day is harder than the last.

The human toll in Ukraine is not only the deaths, but we have millions of people displaced, whose lives have been destroyed, yet for two years they have not stopped fighting.  Their homes, their lives, their families, their children, their loved ones, and their very existence forever damaged because one day a neighboring country crossed and remains on their land.

Do this quick exercise with me to illustrate: Imagine you are in your home living peacefully, and one of your kids happens to get along with the neighbors, and have a lot in common.  Then one day your neighbor comes into your house and wants to take over your kid’s bedroom inside your house and tell you (the parents) this kid is no longer your kid, and that the neighbors are also taking custody of his bedroom.  And if you do anything to prevent that they will “liberate your kid” with overwhelming violence against you if you don’t agree to this madness.  And they will punish your kid severely if the kid does not agree to this crazy arrangement.

For a while you think this is preposterous, there is no way your neighbor can do anything about it.  Yet, you call the authorities, but for some reason they say that it is also preposterous and that it won’t ever happen.  You’re worried the neighbor will take your child and take over his bedroom, but few people seem to agree with you, and let you fend for yourself.  Afterall, this neighbor tends to have a bad temper, and they don’t want to get involved, because they fear that getting involved would also result in retaliation against them.

Because of all the clamoring you’ve been making about this neighbor threat, finally some people kind of listen to you, and ask the neighbor if his plan of taking over the child’s bedroom and “liberate this kid” from his parents is true.  The neighbor denies that, and says that is preposterous.  The next day, the neighbor enters the house and takes over the bedroom holding the kid hostage, and when you as the parents are trying to save your kid, the neighbors start destroying the kid’s bedroom, and attacking you (the parents), and destroying the rest of your house.  This goes on for a while and nobody is helping you against this neighbor who is taking over your house.

To make matters worse, you were warned that you cannot go to the neighbor’s house and destroy their home in retaliation.  Some of your other neighbors lend you something to fight back this aggressive neighbor, but they warn you that you can only use it if they walk inside your house, you’re not allowed to use any of those against their house as an offensive weapon.  Meanwhile, your child remains stuck in his bedroom with the neighbors, and little by little the neighbors have people come from all corners of your house and start destroying different areas in your house, and tell everybody else in the world that it is your fault that this is happening to you, because you should have just let them take your kid and his bedroom, and be good with it.

Of course, the reality in Ukraine is a lot more complex than the analogy I just posed to you.  But I’ve noticed that putting something in perspective tends to help others empathize with what is really going on.  People are suffering, we might not see it, but they are experiencing hell on Earth.  And if you think this could not happen to you in your cozy corner of the world, think again.  Even a lot of Ukrainians and European allies thought it was preposterous that Russia was going to cross the border into Ukraine and start a war.  I predicted this was going to happen, and it pains me that I was right, just as many others who ascertained the same were also right.  But that does not make it any less painful for Ukraine.

I’ve said before, and I will keep saying it.  History is repeating itself, and for those who ignored the lessons learned, they will become victims of the same tactics that occurred in years past.  And this is another reason why I keep writing.  Fortunately, more people are reading what I am saying, and hope this message resonates.  But I cannot help but feel uneasy that the message is not resonating fast enough, because those who want to destroy us all have already traveled a very long trek before I even made it to the starting line.  But that does not mean we cannot still win the race.

And that might actually be an advantage on this case, because the adversary is likely to take their victory for granted, much like they took for granted their perception that Ukraine would fall quickly and swiftly.  Two years of war is not quick at all, yet people keep getting killed and wounded every day, and their futures shattered every time they try to rebuild their lives.  Let’s be clear that what is happening in Ukraine is not only horrific, but the daily massacre also counts as crimes against humanity.

Many Ukrainians did warn that Russia was coming for more after they took the Crimea peninsula a few years before.  Russia originally thought that the Donbas area in Ukraine was going to be just as easy, and that they would be received as liberators.  Well, if that was the case, this whole conflict would have been settled a long time ago.  Instead, it became the most significant geopolitical conflict in our lifetimes.  And although it is not the only one, it is definitely a lot more mind-bending than many people realize.

Let’s put this in perspective very quickly.  Nobody has told the incumbent Russian president “NO” in more than two decades.  His circle of advisors is “yes men & women” – and no matter how erroneous his perspective might be, they will not contradict him.  This is very usual in any society that has a very centralized and galvanized power structure.  The penalty for dissent tends to be very punitive.  So that’s a starting point to understand this situation.

During the Tucker Carlson “interview,” Putin went on for over a half hour on a revisionist version of history.  Historians would be able to tell you how many plots points he missed.  Of course, this was not challenged by Tucker… because what the hell does he know about Russian history?  Afterall, Tucker was amazed by the world-famous Metro station in Moscow which was created in great part as political propaganda during the times Stalin ruled over the Soviet Union.  One of the reasons why this structure is so grand is because Stalin diverted funds from people’s tables to make this impressive project a reality – which was by the way supposed to demonstrate how “wonderful” was the Soviet Union.  Of course, they don’t talk about all the people who starved to fund this place.

On a different side of the spectrum, Tucker was even amazed by the grocery store coin system to return shopping carts.  This narrow level of understanding of history is highly exploitable, and again it is very likely why Putin was after Tucker Carlson’s audience.  It is very likely Carlson’s audience won’t be doing any fact-checking on Putin’s revisionist history.

Not to imply that they are dumb, because not everybody knows very much about foreign history.  Hell, I can tell you right now that if I ask most American-born citizens to name all original 13 Colonies, or the history behind the “Louisiana Purchase,” or about the acquisition of Alaska, they would have no F-ing clue about those either.  Therefore, a revisionist version of Russian history would have been very impressive for them, if there is a world leader who seems to be reciting history off-the-cuff.  It was not off-the-cuff, THAT’s his strategy!

Everything that was said by Putin was likely very much calculated, and although he is surrounded by “yes men & women” – that does not negate the fact he still has a lot of practical knowledge with years of experience.  This is not praise for Putin, it is a mathematical fact.  If you’re doing something for a long time, even if you’re not stellar at it, just by the simple fact you’re existing in that environment, you’re bound to pick up some information that is useful.  But of course, Putin was not infallible, and it is not unlikely that his advisors (euphemism for his yes men & women), conceded that the invasion of Ukraine was going to be an easy task.

Obviously, that was not the case, Russia has lost several warships in very embarrassing ways, and they have also damaged tons of military equipment beyond recognition.  The fact is that a lot of Russian soldiers do not want to be there fighting in Ukraine in the first place.  A sizable number of the Russian military is due to conscription, which was actually mobilized to the front lines, because Russian soldiers were dying like flies.

So, what happened?  Well, it is sad to say, because any loss of life is tragic.  Russian soldiers were not ready for combat, period.  They were dragged from all the less affluent places in Russia (euphemism for poorest areas), and were not given enough time for training, nor equipment before they were in the front lines.  There have been many reports of Russians buying their own gear, to include body armor.  And for those who made it to the front lines, some of their more senior Soldiers were hazing them, and stealing from their own Russian conscripts.

The levels of desertion in the Russian military were rampant, and of course Russia cracked down on that with very stern and punitive measures.  That is not surprising at all.  We’ve spoken in a previous article about how even the mercenary groups were unhappy with the way Russia was conducting this war.  And of course, the head of the Wagner Group who spoke against Putin, just so happened to have his plane fall out of the sky.  And similarly, some powerful Russian oligarchs who were critical of Putin, also somehow suffered some very bizarre accidents, such as falling off balconies.

For a long time, it was illegal in Russia to call this conflict a “war.”  And those who did ended up in prison or worse.  The “correct term” was “special military operation” – and it has been bankrupting Russia ever since.  But Russia does have a lot of cards under the sleeve.  Let’s discuss.

 

The problem with Russia is that they already lost this war.

Despite the sustained combat, Russia has not won this war.  Nor will it win because they are victims of a lose-lose situation of their own making.  What does that mean?  Simple, and I’ve spoken about it in previous articles on this series, it remains unchanged.  Russia overestimated their success rate, and in the midst of trying to prove to the world they were capable, they made the mess even worse.

 

This is their conundrum:

If Russia “wins” – they still lose.  Because they have destroyed their economy, and killed so many of their fighting-age generation to a point that will affect Russia for generations.  Also, on the Ukrainian side, Russia had polluted so many agricultural lands with ordinance, rendering those lands useless for who knows how many years, and PROPERLY fixing the agricultural lands alone would take a lot more money than Russia has ever made in its entire history as a country.

Not to mention all the infrastructure, the lines of communication, the ports, the cities, the displacement of civilians, the loss of military personnel and equipment, their obvious incompetence in several battles and the discovered corruption in the front lines against their own people.  Those are well documented – by Russians soldiers themselves, in the front lines!  Often by making cell phone videos, showing the reality of the situation to the world.

To fix this mess, it will take generations to resolve, and it will cost a lot more than Russia can ever pay for.  And that of course affects every day Russian people.  And let’s remember that Russians do not have the same economic power as we are accustomed here in the West.  Which is by the way something Carlson clearly did not understand when he made a video of a supermarket in Moscow.

If Russia “loses” – And by losing, I mean that there is a cease fire because they cannot longer afford to fight, or are forced to stop fighting.  Then all the costs associated with the paragraphs above (and more that I didn’t mention), PLUS all the legal charges for crimes against humanity, war crimes, and a bunch of additional punitive measures will compound.  Furthermore, they will have to PAY for everything they broke, but they won’t have the luxury to do it on their own terms as would be the case in the previous paragraphs.

Any person with two brain cells to rub in the Russian strategic planning process likely have figured out what I just told you.  It is common sense, though a lot of people don’t really have the time nor the inclination to think about it.  Afterall, many people don’t really understand how important this conflict between Ukraine and Russia truly is.  And I will be talking about how this affects the entire world shortly (below).  And I can understand why this can be the case, the conflict seems to be “over there” and there are very deep links into history that can seem tangential for some.  And quite frankly overwhelmingly complex.

And by complex, I also mean disheartening.  Sure, it can be a downer for some people to think about the tragic suffering others are experiencing.  It is easy to look the other way, and just focus on whatever we have going on in our own lives.  That is a fair point, we all have problems that we are dealing with.  But my point is that the people who are fighting for their lives every day in Ukraine have it a lot worse.  It is easy to shut down and move on with our lives when the human toll is not as evident in our current reality.

And if this talk makes you feel uncomfortable, even just thinking about it… imagine for a second if you would have to live this tragedy, and there is no end in sight, and nobody is really coming to your rescue.  They might give you some means to fight, but you have to fight alone.  Because sure as hell the USA or NATO for that matter is NOT actually fighting with Ukraine.  At best they are rooting for Ukraine with some means for them to defend themselves, but not fighting directly.  And the reason is because doing so would start World War III (WW3).  And Russia very well understands this.

Also, it is worth noting that there has not been any invasion of Ukraine into Russian territory.  In other words, people in Russia are not getting their homes destroyed by military ordinance originating from Ukraine.

So, what is the only option Russia seem to have?  Simple, blame somebody else.  They have been trying to pining this war on the USA and NATO since well before February 22, 2022.  I know for a fact; I spent time deployed in the Mediterranean while this conflict was still in its early months.  And one thing we got to see was the levels of propaganda trying to taunt the USA or NATO to do something stupid – such as becoming responsible for starting WW3.  Obviously, that has not worked in the last two years, so the Russian regime rhetoric would need to be more far reaching.

And the strategy seems to be creating more conflict and confusion, to include conflict in the United States of America – dividing our people.  And do something similar with the NATO countries, or any other nation that could seem convenient towards that effort.  What better way to destroy your enemy than by enticing them to divide themselves?  That is why this Tucker Carlson interview is so important.  The Russian regime likely needed to see a measuring rod to ascertain the effectiveness of their message in the minds and hearts of Tucker’s audience.  And they got their metrics; especially via tweeter, and all the other social media platforms this video was streamed.  What do you think Russia does with the names and statistical numbers of the people who comment in favor of Russia’s actions?  Take a moment to think, I’ll meet you in the next paragraph.

10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.

Ok, if you realized it that they will shove them a lot more information that will shape their already favorable perception of Putin, and demonize Ukraine, then you would be correct.  It is also common sense.  This technique is also used in marketing all the time to try to sell you stuff, but it works just as well when you are trying to push a particular narrative.  Understand that the fall of Ukraine is extremely convenient to Putin and his acolytes.

And it is worth mentioning that Putin does not equal Russia as a whole.  It is well documented that a lot of Russian citizens do not want to live under Putin’s rule, but they don’t have a choice.  Recently the most prominent opposition leader Alexei Navalny was killed while in custody in a very harsh penal colony in Russia.  And Navalny actually had enough of a chance to gain name recognition as Putin was still galvanizing his current level of power.  Dissent is not tolerated in Russia, and if it is, then it seems bizarre that all Putin’s opposition leaders somehow end up incarcerated or killed.  Coincidence?  Also, even several powerful oligarchs who spoke out of turn lost their lives.

The fact is that most Russian people are actually super nice human beings.  I know, because I’ve met several of them throughout my life, and they’re wonderful. I’ve said it before and I will say it again.  People, no matter where you’re from, are more similar than different.  But this level of similarities is extremely inconvenient to those who want to control us.  Hence, those who want to divide us thrive on bigotry, so people who think they are superior will start doing the dirty work other cognizant people would not do – because actual good people understand that we are all human, and nobody is racially superior to anybody.  We are all human beings.

And the fact is that it would be very naïve to think that all Russians approve of the war with Ukraine.  Because they don’t, but again, there is not much they can do but comply, keep their head down, or risk very punitive actions.  And if the Russian regime would claim that it is not true, then they would be ok if people go out on the streets and ask to stop the war.  But the fact is that some Russian citizens were even arrested and punished for paying their respects after Navalny was killed earlier this month.  And it is well documented that many were arrested for criticizing their government.

 

The ENTIRE world is involved, like it or not.

If I could make a wish, it would be for this war to end.  But the only way this war will end is if President Putin decides to stop it.  But he won’t.  He was even very clear that if NATO stops giving support to Ukraine to defend itself, then the conflict will be done in a “few weeks” – understand what that means.  He didn’t say, it will stop immediately.  It means that he would keep fighting Ukrainians until they are defenseless or eliminated.

Let’s use the earlier example to illustrate what does that means.  In the illustrative example we had your child being kidnapped in his bedroom in your own house and the neighbor who kidnapped your kid is destroying the rest of your house.  You were given means to defend yourself by your neighbors, but you’re not allowed to go to your aggressive neighbor’s house and destroy their house, even if that would mean that you can get your son back, and get that bedroom back under your control, and have this aggressive neighbor stopping destroying your house.  This fight has been going on for a while, but at some point, the tools your good neighbors give you will run out, and you have to fend for yourself, while your aggressive neighbor has an unlimited supply of tools to keep destroying your house and physically hurting you.

Sure, once you run out of weapons to defend yourself you might be able to fight for a little bit longer, but the battle will be over once you get overpowered.  What do you think your aggressive neighbor is going to do once you run out of weapons?  Obviously, he is going to hurt you even more, and take your kid, his bedroom, and probably your house after eliminating you.  That is what would happen to Ukraine.  So, let’s say for the sake of argument that this aggressive neighbor does exactly that.  What makes you think he will not try to move to the next house in the neighborhood and keep doing exactly what he got away with, until he cannot get away with it anymore?

I mentioned it in a previous article, but it is worth repeating.  Ukraine has a high level of strategic importance for Russia.  This is not only a cultural issue, but it is also a very practical logistical advantageous area.  Russia has a huge advantage which happens to be their disadvantage.  Russia is huge, but it is stuck up high up on the Northern Hemisphere.  This negates their freedom of movement from different ports, and of course it means that although gigantic, their actual useable lands are not as extensive as many would have guessed.

And the reason is because of the “habitable zone” – there is a reason why convicts used to be sent to Siberia as punishment.  The conditions are extremely rugged and harsh over there.  But so are many huge areas of the Russian land.  Ukraine, although it is a lot smaller than Russia, it is also a gigantic country.  But Ukraine also has a lot of climatic advantages due to its geography.  Whenever you think about warfare, you have to understand geography.  Mountains, ports, valleys, rivers, prairies, agricultural lands, climate, winds, currents, etc.  Ukraine was known as the world’s bread basket for a reason.

In fact, the disruption of many ports caused a lot of famine to areas in other countries that imported grain and other food products from Ukraine.  And now, a lot of those agricultural lands are highly polluted with the toxicity of exploited ordinance that has carpet bombed their country side.  This is what I as saying earlier that will be a gigantic undertaking to properly sanitize in order to make those lands suitable for agriculture.  Why?  Because if you use that land with that toxic ordinance, you’re essentially eating poison.

So, let’s talk about the food situation for a moment.  We have to realize that if the Ukrainian economy also derived in great part by the export of their agricultural production, that means that somebody was buying those products.  The reason why those agricultural products were exported is because most of those countries importing them cannot grow these themselves.  Should be obvious enough, but that means that if the Ukraine goods are no longer available, that creates food insecurity and scarcity into these other countries as well.

Another problem is the fact that even if the war stopped today, those agricultural lands won’t be able to produce food.  The pollution from all that indiscriminate shelling and ordinance is exceedingly toxic, rendering whatever grows in those lands not suitable for human consumption.  I mentioned it before, and it is worth mentioning again.  Therefore, even if Russia ends up taking those lands, there is not much they can do with them because they are severely contaminated.

Meanwhile, the hunger and raising cost of food does not only get confined to Ukraine, but it extends to all those other countries who were depending on this agricultural production.  And yes, many of those countries are in Africa, and sadly that is probably why some people have not given them a second thought.  They just don’t make the media buzz as some more developed nations.  But that does not mean that the suffering is not expanding a lot farther than the Ukrainian territory.  And by the way, this has also affected food costs in other developed nations.  They just don’t feel it as bad.

 

Military dissonance and rules of conflict.

To be perfectly honest on a related matter, though seemingly tangential to some, it can be extremely punitive to speak against the Russian government inside Russia.  This creates unintended consequences, for instance their military service men are dwindling for two reasons.  First because they keep getting killed in the front lines, and not only by Ukrainian firepower, but by sheer incompetence.  There was a high level of attrition and desertion in the Russian military, not because they don’t love Russia.  They do love Russia, but because they don’t trust the military personnel appointed over them.

I’ve mentioned this in a previous article on this series, but it is important to repeat it. Russia does not have the same level of Non-Commissioned Officers (NCOs)like the United States and other NATO allies.  This is important because the NCOs are the subject matter experts on the enlisted side.  This is an important “open secret” tool for any professional military.  Because you can simply not “buy” experience.  You might be able to “pay” for experience, but the experience needs to be honed by sets-and-reps doing something for a determined period of time, it does not happen overnight.

Russia does not have that experience and commitment at the level other countries do.  First off, because most of the forces in the front line are conscripted.  That means that they are NOT volunteers, but rather they got “voluntold” to do what they are doing.  That alone is a huge handicap for anybody who is a professional military person to contend with.  Because even volunteers who have their heart and soul into the mission take time and skill to become proficient at their duties and responsibilities.

Sadly, for them, because they are also human beings, a lot of the Russian military is not as cohesive as it might look on the surface.  It is authoritarian for sure, because there are consequences for disobedience – particularly insubordination.  But the myriad of other important military standards is not consistent.  These are the words of Russian military people themselves in the front lines, via their own cell phone video, not mine.  And if you watch those videos, you can see the shortcomings based in the quality of their gear, their logistics, and the overall command and control.

Russia lost a huge number of Flag Officers, such as generals.  These high-ranking personnel have been killed largely due to incompetence.  What does that mean?  A Flag Officer has important duties that do not require them being where they were standing where they were killed inside Ukraine.  The problem is that they could not trust their NCOs and their Senior and Junior Officers.  Hence, necessitating the need for Flag Officers to step in into what is a de-facto demoted position that should have been filled by an Officer of a lesser rank.

But that is why I said, and it has been demonstrated, that Russian lack the professional military experience needed to be a formidable force.  However, what they lack in experience they make up in numbers, and of course they do have weapons that could destroy the planet.  And it would be very naïve to think they have not been contemplating their use.  In fact, the Russian president was very vocal on his “first strike” policy.  Meaning that he would not be opposed to nuke the planet if he feels Russia is being threatened.  Even if they started the campaign against a neighboring country themselves.

That is why the USA and NATO have not ever said that they are fighting with Ukraine, but only giving them the means to defend themselves.  And true that there are political agreements and accords that also limit what we can and cannot do, aside from the threat of nuclear Armageddon, because once the first nuke falls, that won’t be the last and it would take us all with them.  So, in case it was not clear to somebody about the policy and rules, here is a quick guide:

NATO Article 4 – NATO Partner.  Ukraine is a NATO Partner, but not a NATO Ally.  There is a huge difference.  Under Article 4, they are considered a friendly nation, but they won’t receive all the benefits an ally receives.  In other words, if a partner gets attacked it is akin to “thoughts & prayers” but not getting involved in fighting directly whomever is attacking them.  That is why NATO allies have been providing Ukraine means to defend itself, with the caveat that those means for defense and weaponry are not to be used inside the Russian borders.

NATO Article 5 – NATO Ally.  Ukraine is NOT a NATO Ally.  Under Article 5 that means that if another country attacks a NATO Ally, then ALL the NATO Allies will fight whoever was the aggressive country.  In other words, if somebody attacks any NATO country, then NATO will rise as a coalition to fight them back.  Yes, I am redundant on purpose, because this is why NATO is very cognizant of escalation, and does not start World War 3.

In fact, Article 5 has only been invoked once in the entire NATO history.  And that was to support the United States of America, after the 9/11 attacks.  So, if you’re against NATO, just remember they were there for us when we needed help.  Does NATO have room for improvement?  Absolutely yes, but so does the United States and any other country for that matter.  But the fact is that we are where we are during world history, and like it or not, NATO is trying to prevent this conflict from spilling away from the region.

USA and NATO flag flying in the Mediterranean Sea

I know that for a fact, because when I was deployed in 2022, and while we were in the Mediterranean Sea, that is exactly what we were doing.  You see, warfare is a lot like playing chess.  The area’s geography is the chess board, and each piece has certain capabilities and limitations, but even the less capable piece in the chess board can achieve a check mate.  Conversely, even the strongest piece in the chessboard can be rendered useless depending on the strategy, which is usually several steps ahead.  So, with that example, just understand that it is like playing chess but on steroids.  It can certainly be overwhelming for anybody who is unfamiliar with military planning and execution.

And there is another factor, a lot of that information and strategy is fluid and hence will be usually classified.  Therefore, not for public consumption.  For example, no classified information is to be shared in news stories.  The military strategies are fluid because they prevent adversaries from having an advantage over our own forces.  That is why safeguarding classified information is so important.  Because it is essentially articulating what the next moves will be.  So, if the adversary knows what moves their foe will perform, then they will be able to adjust their doctrines.  That is why you will see me be very vocal against people who compromise classified information.

Information gets classified to protect lives.  And contrary to a popular belief, military forces such as NATO are actually intended to PREVENT war.  And the reason why that is needed, it is because it is obvious that some countries are crossing anther sovereign nation’s border and killing innocent civilians every single day.  That is definitely true for Ukraine, who was been in the explosive end of bomb raids and ordinance for two whole years, with no end in sight.  Just imagine for a second if that was YOU living in those conditions.  Would you not want somebody to help you end this nightmare?

And keep in mind that as I said before, it’s not a lack of willingness from the USA and NATO to end this nightmare.  But at the end of the day there is only one person in the world who can unilaterally end this conflict.  And that person is the incumbent Russian President.  His rationality for ending the daily massacre in Ukraine is if Ukraine stops fighting him for trying to achieve what started this war in the first place.

So, let’s put this in perspective one more time.  The people in Ukraine are fighting for their lands, their livelihood, their future, their freedom, and most importantly their very lives!  Russians who are under Putin’s unilateral orders are fighting because of a rationale that is demonstrably inaccurate.  However, this particular narrative is not being shared with all Russian citizens.

Keep in mind that in the west we are accustomed to diverse opinions, to include the type that is highly critical of whomever is the incumbent leader in the nation.  This is not the case for a lot of countries, even those who seem “free” on the surface.  But in the case of Russia, the media is highly controlled by the government, and their message is supposed to be aligned with whatever the office of the President deems as true and accurate.  And anybody who says a disparaging word against their incumbent will find there are punitive measures.

Contrast that to a place like the United States where incumbent President Biden is disparaged in ways that would be extremely dangerous in places where dissent with the president is punitive.  Yes, long sentence for a reason.  Also noting, there is an entire industry of disparaging and vulgar merchandise in America, that is specifically targeted to insult President Biden.  And of course, all this merchandise is only bought by people who align with Bidens political opposition.  Yet this industry is not only alive, but thriving.  All this paragraph illustrates that the USA is not an authoritarian country.

Keeping that in mind, it is easy to assume that other countries have the same freedom of expression level.  But that is not the case, even if there is opposition who can speak their minds – to a point, that does not mean that there is no retaliation for those who do.  In other words, it takes time to get to a point where unilateral control is galvanized.  So, with that context, just remember that nobody has said “no” to the Russian incumbent in more than 20 years.  That is a long time to get rid of anybody who is not always saying “yes.”

Understanding this, the geopolitical instability does get highjacked liked or not.  When a country with a gigantic nuclear arsenal has already subdued their population into obedience, then this will extend to the rest of the world.  Starting with their immediate neighbors, if they are not aligned with the same vision of government.  There is a reason why not every country is onboard with Russia when it comes to the war against Ukraine.  However, I have to reiterate that people are not against Russians, they are against the policies dictated by the Russian government, that is a huge difference.

The war against Ukraine will continue to create instability around the world in the geopolitical realm.  There is no shortage of authoritarian regimes who have a lot to gain if Ukraine falls, and some of those are a lot further than Ukraine.  Meanwhile, the hearts and minds of people around the world are numb to the horrors occurring as though they are simply old news.  Yet, this continues in Ukraine as a daily reminder that the world seems to have forgotten their struggle.  And I keep framing this reality because even many Ukrainians themselves where not prepared because a lot of them did not think this could happen to them.

Well, I have news for the entire world.  This sustained horror of war can happen at any time, and we are not ready for it.  Are you?  Even if you’re a prepper and have lots of guns in your basement, thinking you can shoot-fight your way out of it, you’re not a match to a bombing raid.  When it comes to military grade weaponry, even the least capable piece of artillery has a lot more range or power than your meanest rifle.  And the strategies of an adversarial regime who is fine with breaking the rules of sovereignty will not hesitate to break the rules of war.  And yes, there is such a thing as the rules of war.  And the war Russia started against Ukraine has violated those rules.

In fact, this is considered by the international community to be an illegal war.  And yes, there is such a thing as” legal war.”  Hence, there are many sanctions imposed against Russia because their President started and continues this war.  This of course also affects every day Russians, which also serves as a measure to “prove a point” even if it is not aligned with reality.  But remember, for any narrative to work, there has to be some truth to the matter intermingled with spin and misdirection in order to frame the narrative in a way that concurs with their agenda.

But if you think that this control of information is only limited to the Russian population, think again.  I told you earlier that Russia lost the war with Ukraine long ago, the horror that continues is to ensure Russia is not stuck with the aftermath from all the damage created and the loss of life inflicted against Ukraine.  But shaping the minds of people to have somebody to “point” at as the culprit takes time.  Hence, the need to frame a narrative to the rest of the world, especially to those who stopped paying attention long ago.

The most influential country where great segments of its population stopped paying attention is the United States of America.  The political and ideological division that has been growing in the USA plays phenomenally for the Russian government.  Why?  Because either if the USA destroys itself by dividing their own population, or miscalculates in a way that results in conflict, then Russia can point and assert that THAT is the reason why they had no choice but to cross Ukraine.  It validates their narrative, even if it does not make sense.  But then again if it did, they would not have crossed the border in the first place.

When the USA is helping Ukraine defend their own interests, it is in fact defending the USA from entering into a global conflict that is surely to come.  How? If the USA is so far away from Ukraine?  Because of Article 5, there is a credible fear that Russia will not stop if they defeat Ukraine.  There are a lot of NATO countries who were former Soviet Republics, and according to Putin’s understanding of history, those territories would also be considered “illegitimate countries” – much like the Russian government is calling Ukraine out as though it is not an actual sovereign country.

And the reason why he says that is because there is precedent that Ukraine and Russia have a lot of shared history.  And of course, Ukraine was a former Soviet Republic, and when they split off as independent nations, this was a huge blow to Russia.  Specifically, because Ukraine is a frontier country giving the rationale it is a buffer zone between NATO and Russia.  Putin said that he is afraid NATO is aggressive against Russia and that they want to erase Russia from the map.

I said this in an earlier article, and it remains true.  Nobody wants to erase Russia from the map.  In fact, nobody is even meddling on their internal affairs.  The only people who can make a change in Russia is the Russian people themselves.  Much like they have done it throughout their history.  To be brutally honest, most people, even in NATO countries are more interested in simply living their lives.  And to better illustrate, here is the full list of NATO countries, which one of these do you think would want to risk being the catalyst to start World War 3 and compromise their peaceful standard of living?  The answer is none of them.

These are the 31 North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries in alphabetical order:

1. Albania

2. Belgium

3. Bulgaria

4. Canada

5. Croatia

6. Czechia

7. Denmark

8. Estonia

9. Finland

10. France

11. Germany

12. Greece

13. Hungary

14. Iceland

15. Italy

16. Latvia

17. Lithuania

18. Luxembourg

19. Montenegro

20. Netherlands

21. North Macedonia

22. Norway

23. Poland

24. Portugal

25. Romania

26. Slovakia

27. Slovenia

28. Spain

29. Turkey

30. United Kingdom

31. United States

And of course, we have Sweeden who is in cue to be completing the process to become part of NATO.  Notice that Ukraine is not in the list.  And Russia’s rationale is because it would be a huge threat to Russia to have a NATO country outside their borders.  Except that there are many NATO countries who are actually bordering Russia already!  In fact, newly accepted NATO member, Finland, shares a border to a very strategic area of Russia in the northern part of the world.  And of course, there are NATO countries that border with Kaliningrad, which is also Russia in the southern Baltic Sea.

For the United States being part of NATO is of huge strategic importance.  I can speak about that for hours, but let’s only choose one of those many topics.  Geography! when you have allies keeping an eye and keeping the peace in their own area of responsibility away from the United States, then it prevents an adversary from making its way to our homeland.  And instead of the USA having our forces spread thin across the world, each nation is deemed reliable to ensure we all work together, and prevent conflict from becoming a global problem.  Which includes conflicts like what Ukraine has been experiencing for the last two years.  You think that can’t happen, remember, many Ukrainians thought the same.

And this is another reason why it is incumbent on all of us to understand politics.  I am not asking to get a political science degree, but I am advocating for paying attention.  Why?  Because it is in politics where the policy is approved.  And these policies could work for or against our best interests.  And that is why I am so vocal against policies that are weakening our country.  Because if our country weakens, then the entire world stability goes with it.  And yes, we are in the driver’s seat now, therefore it is incumbent on all of us to understand what is truly going on.

I am particularly concerned that there is no shortage of politicians who just so happen to repeat adversarial nations talking points verbatim in Capitol Hill!  Does that mean that they are purposely treasonous?  Not necessarily, they might very well be as confused as many people who parrot the very same thing that just so happens to align with approved state-sponsored media in adversarial countries.  Don’t take my word for it, that information is freely available.

But this is a good time to understand that there are two forms of insider threats.  Witting and unwitting.  The former is somebody who is doing something deceitful or illegal willingly while being cognizant about it.  That is bad.  However, the latter, the unwitting insider threat is more dangerous, because they are too stupid to realize they are accomplishing the same nefarious agenda for the adversary, without even realizing it.  My question when I hear and see these politicians repeating the very same talking points is: I wonder which type of insider threat they truly are?

The fact is that the incumbent Russian government will find it extremely convenient if the United States plays ball by either staying away from providing Ukraine with means to defend itself altogether, or better yet, join the effort among the nations who are misaligned with the rest of the planet.  Which means that adversarial nations would love having the USA be against democracy, and freedom of thought and action.

The United States action or inaction on this conflict also resonates greatly on other countries around the world.  Even those countries that a lot of Americans cannot point on a map.  But as I mentioned, this is by design.  The war in Ukraine is perhaps the catalyst that has already started World War 3, but we have not realized it yet.  This is true for both types of countries in this dynamic, those who are for and against freedom and democracy around the world.  The road to crisis tends to be very abstract and it has a lot of indicators that are buried in the sand, but that does not mean that there aren’t telltale signs that are very obvious to those who know what to look for.

Countries adversarial to the USA want to see if we are as strong as we claim to be, and if we are not, then that gives them an avenue to exploit our nation.   Meanwhile, they constantly do what they find very effective, which is dividing us. That way our efforts to fight the real adversary will be ineffective.  Has this happened before in the world?  YES!  In fact, it happened in Ukraine, and in the European Union.

Here is a quick history lesson, before this war that Russia started against Ukraine there were many countries who thought that Russia would NEVER start this conflict.  And as I said, there were a lot of people in Ukraine, to include those in prominent places who agreed that Russia was not going to cross the border.  In fact, Putin himself said something along the lines that it was preposterous that Russia would cross the border into Ukraine just days before the war started.  Many of us who were paying attention did not believe what Putin said that day, and the truth is that two years later, Russia still fighting and killing people inside the Ukrainian borders.

 

What can we do about it?

Now many of you would be asking yourself, well, what CAN I do?  Well, to be honest physically there is not much you can do for Ukraine right this second.  In fact, it would be unrealistic for you to leave your family and loved ones and join the fight to liberate Ukraine, even if that is what you would want to do.  So, what can you REALLY do to help?  The answer is simpler than you might think.  Learn about the conflict, and prevent the misinformation from continuing to spread like wildfire.

Sharing my articles on this series can be a good start.

Ukraine & Russia Conflict… over 485 days later

Ukraine & Russia Conflict… a year later

Ukraine & Russia Conflict… 334 days later

Ukraine & Russia conflict… 302 days later

Like it or not authoritarian propaganda is on the rise, and it is affecting the entire world.  Propaganda is the catalyst that turns otherwise good people into monsters by turning divisive rhetoric into [often] violent action.  An authoritarian is only as powerful as their followers, and they have already galvanized power all around the world, they just have not been able to exercise to its full extent, because there are still checks and balances left.

AUTHORITARIANISM & PROPAGANDA The Puppet Master Tools

 

However, when politicians keep getting away with talking points that erode the fabric of our society, then the problematic rhetoric becomes normalized despite the horror.  Much like for many outside Ukraine, this horrendous war has become normalized, and most people don’t stop to think about it.   So, what else can you do about it?  You can be an advocate to ensure the Ukrainian people’s pain and suffering that they have already endured was not in vain.  And if for some reason you happen to be one of those people who only care about themselves, just know that what Ukrainians are experiencing today, it’s the same reality you could very well be experiencing tomorrow.

The type of weapons that exist today can travel several times the distance you can see over the horizon, and many of those will be traveling at several times the speed of sound.  You won’t see them coming.  Yes, even those AR-15 trigger happy people won’t see them.  Beside that weapon is ineffective against the type of ammunition that would be hurdled at people if this war expands from the region.

It would be naïve to think that we have not been at the brink of War World 3 a few times since this war started.  But remember that there was a NATO person on the seat paying attention and guarding your sleep.  They are preventing this war from expanding against the rest of the world.  Although Ukrainians are fighting on their own, giving them the means to defend themselves is actually holding the line for the rest of the world!

We are at the brink of a thermonuclear war, and if you haven’t realized it yet, it has been stopped by the brave Ukrainian people, even those who thought this war was never going to start in the first place.  As you go on to enjoy your weekend, take a moment to remember that Ukrainians have not been able to have a normal weekend in two years!  Next time you hear politicians or anybody saying or asking, why are we worried about Ukraine anyway?  Put yourself in their shoes, and imagine every horror that is going on in their lives as though it was happening in your own life.

It will be horrific to THINK about for anybody who has any sense of humanity, but remember that it is REALITY for millions of Ukrainians today.  In fact, they won’t be able to stop that “inconvenience” and “look away” and return to their happy lives.  And I keep emphasizing it, this could very well be the preamble for the next global war.  How do I know?  Well, consider this:

What year did World War 2 start?  The correct answer is: It depends!  It depends which country you were in at the time, and what geopolitical involvement was at the time the war started for them.  History is repeating itself, that is why I keep writing what I am writing.  Fortunately, the way to fix it is by combining our critical thinking with intellectual honesty.  This will help us understand what is real, and separate it from all the distracting noise.  Again, I write extensively about it, hopefully we can start working together to defeat authoritarian propaganda around the world.  HLC